Isaias is a major hurricane, headed for the Gulf Coast

View larger. | Isaias is now a major hurricane, a Category 3, with winds of 120 miles per hour. Image via CIRA/NOAA. Isaias is a major hurricane, headed for the Gulf Coast After the longest wait on record in the satellite era,…

October 10, 2026 SphereNexus Editorial Team 5 min read

Isaias is a major hurricane, headed for the Gulf Coast

After the longest wait on record in the satellite era, this year’s Atlantic hurricane season has its first hurricane: Hurricane Isaias.

Isaias is now a powerful, major Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds up to 120 miles per hour (193 kph). The hurricane, as of 7 a.m. CDT Friday, October 9, is 245 miles (390 km) south of Pensacola, Florida. It’s taking aim at the Gulf Coast with landfall expected Friday night near the Alabama and Florida state line. Strong wind shear could weaken the storm before it makes landfall, but dangerous and life-threatening impacts are still expected in the form of up to 7 feet (2 meters) of storm surge and heavy rain of more than 6 inches (15 cm) causing flash flooding. In addition, there’s the risk of hurricane-force winds and tornadoes on the eastern side of the storm.

Isaias formed as a tropical storm in the southwestern Gulf on Wednesday morning, October 7. By 10:30 p.m. CDT, it had strengthened into a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 75 miles per hour (120 km/h).

A life-threatening storm surge is expected on portions of the northern Gulf Coast, while dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and southern Mississippi. Find NHC forecast updates here.

Nearly a record-breaking hurricane

Until Isaias, this year’s below-average hurricane season had seen only nine tropical storms and no hurricanes. The last Atlantic hurricane season that had no hurricanes was back in 1914. And this was in the pre-weather satellite era, when data and records were not as reliable. During the weather satellite era there has never been a hurricane season in the Atlantic with no hurricanes, and Isaias has made sure that trend continues.

According to Dr. Philip Klotzbach with Colorado State University, the latest first hurricane on record was October 8, 1905. So it seems Isaias missed out on that record by just a few hours. However, in the era of weather satellite observations, beginning in 1966, Hurricane Isaias is indeed the latest first Atlantic hurricane. On average, the first hurricane of the season forms around August 11th.

The forecast track of Isaias. Image via NHC.

Isaias threats

The National Hurricane Center says that life-threatening storm surge is possible for parts of the northern Gulf Coast. Up to 7 feet (2.1 meters) of storm surge — water pushed in from the ocean over dry land due to winds from a hurricane — is forecast from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, through Mobile Bay, Alabama, and out toward Indian Pass, Florida.

Additionally up to 5 feet (1.5 meters) of surge is possible from the mouth of the Mississippi River up toward Ocean Springs, Mississippi. Heavy rain is also possible, with up to 8 inches (20 cm) forecast to fall across Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Hurricane-force winds are also expected across the Gulf Coast, especially near the point of landfall.

Map of Gulf Coast with yellow and orange along the shore for storm surge forecast. — Life-threatening storm surge of up to 9 feet (2.7 meters) is forecast along parts of the northern Gulf Coast as Hurricane Isaias approaches. Image via NHC.

The forecast cone

One of the most misunderstood aspects of hurricane forecasts is the forecast cone. The forecast cone, or track, shows where the center of the storm is expected to go. Historically, the center of the storm has remained inside the cone about 2/3 of the time, meaning that in roughly 1/3 of cases, the center can fall outside the cone.

Plus, the cone only represents the forecast uncertainty for the storm’s center. The hurricane itself is much larger, and its impacts can extend well beyond the cone. This means that dangerous weather can occur outside the forecast cone, even when the storm’s center remains within it.

This makes it important to get your weather information from a trusted source, such as the National Hurricane Center, your local National Weather Service office or a local television meteorologist you trust. Also, if any local emergency agencies call for you to evacuate, do not hesitate: immediately evacuate inland to escape the threat of storm surge flooding.

An example of a hurricane forecast cone and how to understand it. Image via National Weather Service.

Bottom line: Hurricane Isaias has become the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season. It is now a major hurricane and should make landfall around midnight tonight near the Alabama/Florida state line.

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Rachel Duensing

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About the Author:

Rachel Duensing is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist by the American Meteorological Society and is currently a meteorologist and climate reporter at CBS17 in Raleigh, North Carolina. Rachel has previously worked in Fort Myers, Florida and Carterville, Illinois. In addition to daily weather, she has covered tornado outbreaks, hurricanes, and extreme heat and cold.

Rachel received her Bachelor of Science degree in Meteorology and Digital Media from Valparaiso University in Valparaiso, Indiana. While at Valpo, she was a member of the Valparaiso University Storm Intercept Team, and along with professors and classmates, chased tornadoes and severe weather across the United State’s Great Plains and Midwest.

Rachel grew up outside Chester, Illinois, a small town in the southern end of the state (nowhere near Chicago!). When she was only 10 years old, Rachel learned about weather in science class, and when those lessons were followed up by a tornado outbreak outside her town, she took it as a sign and has been in love with weather ever since!

When not forecasting the weather or reporting on weather and climate, Rachel spends her time volunteering at a local cat shelter and watching hockey with her husband.